Election 2026: what the result tells us so far
Election night delivered a close and unusual result rather than a clear mandate. Labour narrowly leads the preliminary party vote with 29.36 percent, compared with National’s 29.21 percent. However, National’s stronger performance in the electorates means it is projected to hold 42 seats in Parliament, compared with Labour’s 36.
On the current count, the current coalition have 67 of Parliament’s 131 seats—just above the 66 seats needed for a majority. Approximately 399,000 special votes remain to be checked and counted, so these numbers may change before official results are released on 27 November.
Reflections on the campaign
One clear reflection from the campaign is that small business was firmly on the policy agenda. Parties put forward significantly different proposals covering tax, investment, cash flow, compliance, employment settings, procurement and regulatory reform. However, the close result means no party’s complete campaign platform can yet be treated as the next Government’s programme. The policies that proceed—and their timing and design—will depend on the final numbers and any coalition negotiations. The policy differences are set out in our round-up. Read our election policy round-up here >>
We are also already seeing some pre-election positions soften. National formally ruled out working with the Opportunity Party during the campaign, but has since said it intends to build a relationship with the party. National may not need Opportunity’s support to form a government based on the preliminary numbers. It is, however, an early reminder that the election result is only the beginning of the political process. For Business Central, what matters now is how these relationships shape the next Government’s policy agenda. We will be watching these developments closely and engaging where needed to make sure the voice of business is heard.
Opportunity enters Parliament
The Opportunity Party’s entry into Parliament is one of the significant developments from Election 2026. For Business Central, a new parliamentary party also means new relationships to build and new opportunities to ensure the voice of business is heard.
Their Breakthrough Economy policy proposes greater support for innovation and small business, including faster access to research and development tax credits, more funding for budgeting services, fairer ACC and retail payment systems, and a new legal structure for businesses delivering social or environmental benefits.
While it is not yet known if Opportunity party will be part of the next government, it will be interesting to see how their entry into parliament impacts politics.
Changes ahead for key business portfolios
With no National Party list MPs currently projected to return to Parliament, several prominent Ministers who did not win electorate seats are set to depart parliament. This includes Nicola Willis, who served as Minister of Finance and Minister for Economic Growth, and Chris Bishop, whose portfolios included Housing, Infrastructure, RMA Reform and Transport, as well as Associate Finance. These portfolios cover many of the issues that matter directly to Business Central members, including economic growth, investment, infrastructure delivery, housing and the regulatory environment. Their departure could mean some work underway before the election will need renewed political momentum under new Ministers, while also creating an opportunity for fresh ideas to boost business confidence. Business Central will be engaging early with whoever takes on these portfolios to advocate for continuity where policy is working, and change where businesses need better outcomes.
What happens next?
The preliminary result is only the first step. The Electoral Commission will now check special votes, recount the ordinary votes and complete its quality-assurance process, with official results due on Friday, 27 November. Until a new Government is formed, the incumbent National-led coalition will continue in a caretaker capacity.
Business Central awaits the final result, coalition agreements and ministerial appointments before completing a fuller assessment on what the new Government means for our members. Our focus will be on what survives negotiations, how quickly commitments will be implemented, and whether the next government provides greater certainty, improves productivity and investment, and reduces the costs and complexity facing businesses.
