Budget 2026: Adapting, leading, and finding opportunity

We recently hosted a panel discussion following the 2026 Budget announcement, featuring economist Cameron Bagrie, award winning ex-journalist Amanda Millar, director at Forté Recruitment Anita Murdoch, and moderator Jessica Mutch-McKay.

While the conversation in the room was honest, pragmatic, and at times optimistic, there was one prevailing question – ‘what has changed?’ For many, the answer was simply; not a lot.

There was good discussion around the individual Budget announcements and government spending, but the strongest themes from the evening were about the reality Wellington businesses have been navigating for the past two years. A recurring sentiment from the panel was that most organisations have already adjusted to a world where certainty is limited and support is constrained. And the expectation that government can provide the solution to every challenge is unrealistic. Instead, businesses are increasingly focused on what sits within their own control.

The past two years have seen Wellington businesses become leaner, more disciplined, and more deliberate in how and where they invest their time, money, and resources. For some, this has meant restructuring teams. For others, it has meant reassessing growth plans, reducing costs, renegotiating supplier relationships, or finding new markets and opportunities. The panel’s message was that these conditions are not easy. Many businesses remain under pressure with hiring decisions taking longer, permanent roles becoming fixed term contracts, and investment decisions being delayed due to economic uncertainty.

Leadership when certainty is in short supply

Despite these challenges, there was little appetite in the room for standing still. One of the clearest themes was the importance of leadership during times of uncertainty. When external conditions are volatile, leaders cannot control things like interest rates, government policy, fuel prices, geopolitical events, or global markets. But they can control how they communicate, support their people, make decisions, and adapt.

Several panellists noted that uncertainty can often create a vacuum within organisations. When people don't understand what is happening around them, they naturally look to leaders for direction and reassurance. In these moments, leadership becomes less about having all the answers and more about creating confidence, maintaining focus, and helping teams navigate change together.

This is particularly important at a time when many organisations are balancing cost pressures, workforce challenges, changing customer expectations, and rapid technological change. While economic conditions may influence business performance, the discussion highlighted that strong leadership remains one of the few competitive advantages entirely within an organisation's control.

Technology is an enabler, not a strategy

The discussion also highlighted a tension within many organisations; on one hand there is the need to embrace technology to achieve gains in areas like customer experience, productivity and operations, but on the other hand many are still trying to figure out how to practically implement new tools while managing day-to-day pressures and operating with constrained resources.

Artificial intelligence featured heavily in the discussion, particularly given its increasing prominence in conversations about productivity and the future workforce. While there was recognition that AI presents significant opportunities, there was also acknowledgement that many businesses are still at the beginning of the journey. For smaller organisations in particular, finding the time, capability, and confidence to explore new technologies can be challenging when immediate business demands continue to compete for attention.

The panel also noted that technology adoption is about far more than purchasing software or introducing new tools. It requires organisations to rethink processes, build capability, support their people through change, and understand where technology can genuinely add value. There was broad agreement that technology will play an increasingly important role in business performance, however, technology alone is not a strategy. Success will come from a combination of new tools, strong leadership, clear direction, and a willingness to evolve.

The broccoli period

Perhaps the most memorable observation from the evening was from economist, Cameron Bagrie, who described the current environment as a ‘broccoli period’ – not everyone likes it, but it’s good for you. His point was that difficult economic periods often reveal organisational strengths and weaknesses more quickly than prosperous ones. They force businesses to sharpen their focus, improve discipline, strengthen relationships, and make better decisions.

In many ways, that reflects where Wellington businesses find themselves today. The environment remains challenging, growth is uneven and confidence may still be rebuilding. Yet there was a sense of pragmatism in the room. Businesses are adapting and finding new ways forward. And opportunities continue to emerge in sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, defence, technology, and digital transformation.

And so, perhaps the conversation moving forward isn’t whether conditions are difficult, but how businesses can respond. As several panellists observed, this may not be a time for waiting, but a time for strengthening relationships, building capability, taking calculated risks, and positioning for the opportunities that will emerge on the other side.

The Budget may not have changed the landscape overnight. But the discussion reinforced something equally important; the future performance of Wellington businesses depends less on what the government does next, and more on how we choose to lead, adapt, and grow from here.